Drafting High School Players

Rany Jazayerli has a pair of very interesting articles about the draft up over at Baseball Prospectus. He studied the ages and success rates of high school hitters taken high in the draft, and found that those young for their grade had an enormous advantage over those a bit older for their grade. In other words, a 17-year-old high school senior is a much better bet than an 18-year-old high school senior if the players have identical abilities. Small differences in age make an enormous difference when projecting the future performance of teenagers. Cool stuff, highly recommended. Part one is here, part two here.