Young and Mejia: Deep Thoughts

Well, yesterday was a rough day for Mets pitchers. Per everywhere, Chris Young has a torn anterior capsule, the same injury Johan Santana has, and is likely out for the year. It was also announced that top prospect Jenrry Mejia is getting set for Tommy John surgery. Tom Seaver probably stubbed his toe on something. It was one of those days.

A few thoughts:

– Chris Young’s base salary was set at $1.1 million dollars this season, and with incentives not set to kick in for a while, that’s all he’s probably going to make. I suppose that’s the good news here: Young’s performance this season, though just four starts, may have been worth the money. Most sabermagicians place the value of a win at about $4 million dollars on the free agent market. Young allowed just 5 runs in 24 innings pitched, a performance Fangraphs valued at 0.2 wins above replacement (and $0.7 million dollars). On the other hand, Baseball-Reference valued his performance at 1.2 wins above replacement, which would be worth well over $1.1 million dollars. So it certainly wasn’t a bad investment by the Mets, and it may have even been a net win. If you want to call “24 innings followed by potentially career ending surgery” a net win.

— Jenrry Mejia is going to have Tommy John surgery. As seen with the relative health of Chris Capuano, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Isringhausen, among others, Tommy John surgery isn’t anything near a death sentence for a pitcher’s career. Mejia will be out for a year, maybe a bit more or less (probably more), and then will hopefully pick up where he left off. Maybe you could blame this on the previous regime for needlessly and stupidly toying with Mejia last season, sticking him in the bullpen and using him on back to back days, but not giving him a defined role, and then stretching him out in the minors again in a weird way. Or maybe not. You never know with these things. It’s not the end of Mejia’s career, so we’ll see him again.

It does, however, throw the Mets’ rotation plans for next season. Instead of Mejia, R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, a Joe Schmo and hopefully Johan Santana, the Mets are instead looking at Dickey, Pelfrey, Niese, Gee, hopefully Santana, and a couple of Joe Schmos — or, basically their plan from this season. Santana is far from a sure thing (Chris Young can tell you how shoulder problems aren’t much fun), and the system’s top minor league arms probably won’t be ready until the end of 2012 or 2013. The 2012 free agent market is likely to feature C.J. Wilson as the top available starter. So, you know, unless Orlando Hernandez suddenly reappears, the pitching is going to remain a problem for a while . . . which may make any potential trades that bring back young pitchers more attractive to the front office. That may be the real legacy of Mejia’s injury.

Also, the Mets lost in Colorado yesterday, 2-1. Yeah. Yesterday was not a good day in Mets land.


Filed under Mets, Words

2 responses to “Young and Mejia: Deep Thoughts

  1. I was hoping this would be like the SNL Deep Thoughts.

    Good read anyway.

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