#2 – Dwight Gooden: Best Young Pitchers

Opening Day 2011 will be the 50th Opening Day in Mets history. To honor that, around here we’ll be counting down the top 50 Mets in team history, one every weekday from now until we’ve done ‘em all. Today, #2, Dwight Gooden:

The best pitchers by age 19:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	ERA	ERA+	Tm
1	Bob Feller	10.1	1936	1938	17-19	31	21	3.78	124	CLE
2	Gary Nolan	6.8	1967	1967	19-19	14	8	2.58	147	CIN
3	Dwight Gooden	5.4	1984	1984	19-19	17	9	2.60	137	NYM
4	Larry Dierker	5.3	1964	1966	17-19	17	17	3.28	103	HOU
5	Rube Bressler	3.5	1914	1914	19-19	10	4	1.77	148	PHA

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2011.

Bob Feller is the best teenage pitcher in baseball history, coming up at age 17, but maybe not the most dominant. Feller led the league in strikeouts (240 K) as a 19 year old, but didn’t have any control, as he also led the league in walks (208 BB). As 19 year olds, Dwight Gooden led the league in strikeouts and Gary Nolan led the league in strikeout rate, and both of them had strikeout-to-walk ratios above 3.3. Feller succeed through effective wildness, while Gooden and Nolan were perhaps more refined products.

The best pitchers by age 20:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	ERA	ERA+	Tm
1	Bob Feller	18.7	1936	1939	17-20	55	30	3.43	133	CLE
2	Dwight Gooden	17.1	1984	1985	19-20	41	13	2.00	176	NYM
3	Gary Nolan	10.2	1967	1968	19-20	23	12	2.51	141	CIN
4	Bert Blyleven	8.4	1970	1971	19-20	26	24	2.95	123	MIN
5	Christy Mathewson	7.5	1901	1901	20-20	20	17	2.41	138	NYG

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2011.

At age 20, Feller cuts his walks from 208 to 142 — a figure that still leads the league — and strikes out 246. Gooden, on the other hand, has one of the best seasons in history, leading the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, and complete games. Feller still leads by nature of his high inning total, but inning for inning, Gooden is the more effective pitcher. Gary Nolan starts to drop off the list, as a pair of Hall of Famers, Blyleven and Mathewson, join the party.

The best pitchers by age 21:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	ERA	ERA+	Tm
1	Bob Feller	28.1	1936	1940	17-21	82	41	3.19	140	CLE
2	Dwight Gooden	21.5	1984	1986	19-21	58	19	2.28	155	NYM
3	Frank Tanana	13.2	1973	1975	19-21	32	30	2.88	120	CAL
4	Bert Blyleven	12.9	1970	1972	19-21	43	41	2.86	122	MIN
5	Gary Nolan	12.2	1967	1969	19-21	31	20	2.74	131	CIN

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2011.

Feller and Gooden still hold down the first and second spot, but Feller starts to move ahead. Feller is still getting better at age 21, leading the league in just about everything (except walks, for the first time in two years); Gooden has the third best season of his career, but is beginning a sharp decline into a lesser pitcher. Blyleven and Nolan hang on to spots in the top five, while Frank Tanana makes an appearance.

The best pitchers by age 22:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	ERA	ERA+	Tm
1	Bob Feller	35.6	1936	1941	17-22	107	54	3.18	136	CLE
2	Dwight Gooden	25.3	1984	1987	19-22	73	26	2.46	146	NYM
3	Bert Blyleven	22.1	1970	1973	19-22	63	58	2.76	132	MIN
4	Frank Tanana	20.4	1973	1976	19-22	51	40	2.73	125	CAL
5	Larry Dierker	19.8	1964	1969	17-22	55	50	3.00	111	HOU

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2011.

Gooden is just treading water at this point, failing to reach both the 200 inning and 200 strikeout marks for the first time in his career, though he still owns the best ERA+ on the list. Feller throws a league leading 343 innings as a 22 year old, and also leads in hits allowed, walks and strikeout, and Blyleven starts to make a serious push. But you can make a case that Gooden is the most dominant pitcher in baseball history through his age 22 season, based on his ERA/ERA+ lead.

The best pitchers by age 23:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	ERA	ERA+	Tm
1	Bob Feller	35.6	1936	1941	17-22	107	54	3.18	136	CLE
2	Bert Blyleven	29.3	1970	1974	19-23	80	75	2.74	134	MIN
3	Dwight Gooden	28.6	1984	1988	19-23	91	35	2.62	135	NYM
4	Frank Tanana	28.1	1973	1977	19-23	66	49	2.69	131	CAL
5	Christy Mathewson	25.4	1901	1904	20-23	97	59	2.21	139	NYG

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2011.

Blyleven passes Gooden; Feller’s totals are frozen as he goes off to the military, but no one catches him anyway. Gooden throws 248.1 innings as a 23 year old, but hitters aren’t missing anymore, as he sets a career high in hits allowed and fails to strikeout 200 batters again. His ERA+ has also dropped into the pack, though he still has 91 wins as a 23 year old.

The best pitchers by age 24:

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	ERA	ERA+	Tm
1	Walter Johnson	36.9	1907	1912	19-24	115	90	1.69	165	WSH
2	Bob Feller	35.6	1936	1941	17-22	107	54	3.18	136	CLE
3	Bert Blyleven	35.1	1970	1975	19-24	95	85	2.78	133	MIN
4	Christy Mathewson	34.5	1901	1905	20-24	128	68	2.02	150	NYG
5	Frank Tanana	30.9	1973	1978	19-24	84	61	2.86	124	CAL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2011.

Gooden falls off the list here. So the question is: Was he on a Hall of Fame track before his career was derailed? Some of the best pitchers in baseball history appear on these lists — Feller, Mathewson, Blyleven, Johnson — but you also have a handful of burnouts — Nolan, Tanana, and Gooden himself. Success at a young age, particularly as a pitcher, is not a great indicator for sustained success in the major leagues. Gooden could have been on a Hall of Fame track, but it seems just as likely that he was not.

But Gooden, along with Feller, is one of the two best young pitchers in baseball history, and he is the second best player in Mets history.