Baseball-Reference blog takes a look at historical pitching staffs with the most “future wins” in it — for example, the 1969 Mets, who had Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, and Tug McGraw, all of whom would go on to win many more games in their future careers.
As it turns out, the late-seventies Dodgers, who had many very good pitchers but no great ones, had the most future wins in their staff. B-R then repeats the study using WAR and gets a more Mets-friendly answer.
Patrick you really love that WAR stat. I truly don’t understand what it means. I know it takes a lot of different aspects of the game and generates a number based on those categories. Do you think it is a truly reliable stat? Can you give me a few examples. Thx
Yup, I like WAR.
WAR stands for “Wins Above Replacement,” and it’s supposed to measure how many wins a player contributed to his team above a replacement level player — replacement players being those freely available off the scrap heap or from AAA.
It is fairly reliable snapshot of a player’s value, particularly over the long term — Babe Ruth has more career WAR than anyone — though it can leave some aspects of a player’s game out, like taking extra bases and hitting with runners in scoring position.
This: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-WAR?urn=mlb-211211 is a nice intro into WAR, and this: http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2010/07/war-problems-and-mets-crazy-horse.html is something similar I wrote over the summer. Feel free to email me, too.